Baku: The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its July edition of the ‘World Economic Outlook,’ forecasts that the average global oil price in 2025 will be $68.18 per barrel, APA-Economics reports. This represents a 13.9% decrease compared to 2024. For 2026, the projected average oil price is $64.33.
According to Azeri-Press News Agency, this forecast reflects a 1.6 percentage point upward revision compared to the projections made in April, indicating a somewhat milder decline than previously expected. The IMF notes that the recent increase in oil prices was mainly driven by geopolitical risk premiums following military clashes between Iran and Israel in June. However, this price surge was temporary and has largely subsided.
Market attention has now shifted back to core fundamentals such as supply and demand balance. The report highlights that strong supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers continues to outweigh weak global demand, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices.
The IMF also states that natural gas prices have remained relatively stable. This is attributed to trade-related uncertainty, the European Union’s plans for more flexible gas storage targets, and expectations of increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply in the medium term.