Abu dhabi: Recent developments in the Middle East show that the Strait of Hormuz, beyond being an energy route, is turning into one of the main arenas of regional and international competition. The blockade policy announced by the administration of US President Donald Trump regarding Iran reveals that a new phase is taking shape in the region. This policy, while serving as a tool of economic pressure, also increases the likelihood of military tension. The current situation has a wide range of impact, from the security of Gulf countries to the stability of global energy markets.
According to Azeri-Press News Agency, Washington’s recent statements show that the United States is trying to weaken Iran not only through sanctions but also by increasing control over its energy exports, which are one of its main sources of economic income. This, in turn, turns the Strait of Hormuz from a geographical passage into more of a political and strategic pressure platform.
Karim Ali Mejri, a Qatari political commentator, evaluates this process as an already established reality. ‘The implementation of a blockade by the Donald Trump administration in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a possibility, but the execution of a concrete political and military strategy, and the steps taken on April 13 show that Washington intends to force Iran to retreat not only through diplomatic pressure, but by systematically restricting its energy and logistics outlets, which indicates that a new phase of confrontation has begun in the region,’ the Qatari expert told APA.
This approach shows that the United States is using the blockade more as a tool of economic pressure than a military intervention. However, the potential of such a strategy to increase tensions remains.
If a blockade is implemented, it is likely that this step could affect the position of US allies. Limiting Iran’s oil exports may lead to a weakening of its regional influence. At the same time, the process may also create a more complex security environment.
Karim Ali Mejri explains this change by noting that the blockade may weaken Iran, but increase instability in the region: ‘Such a blockade could significantly reduce Iran’s oil revenues, weakening its military and political influence in the region, and this could create a shift in the balance of power in favor of US allies. However, at the same time, this process could push Iran toward harsher and asymmetric responses, which would create a new security environment generating long-term instability in the region.’
From this perspective, the change in the balance of power is not limited only to the weakening of one side but also leads to the emergence of new risks.
The current situation creates complex choices for the Gulf countries. While they may view the weakening of Iran positively in terms of their security interests, they are wary of the possibility of a large-scale war in the region. This position shows that Arab countries, while aligning with the United States in the field of security, also prefer reducing tensions on the political level.
As the Strait of Hormuz is one of the main routes of global energy supply, any crisis arising here directly affects the global economy. Karim Ali Mejri emphasizes that the blockade could not only increase oil prices but also lead to broad economic fluctuations in global markets.
‘A blockade or any restriction in the Strait of Hormuz could immediately affect the global energy market and cause oil prices to rise above 100 dollars. At the same time, considering that approximately 20-21 percent of global oil trade passes through this route, such a situation would not be limited only to an increase in energy prices, but would also result in rising logistics costs, increasing insurance risks, and large-scale economic fluctuations in global markets.’
Iran is not only taking a defensive position against the blockade, but is also trying to increase its control capabilities over the Strait. This could affect the export activities of Arab countries. According to the Qatari political commentator, Iran’s control mechanisms could restrict the exports of Arab countries and affect their energy reliability.
The current situation makes it necessary for the Gulf countries to reconsider their security strategies. Energy infrastructure and maritime routes come to the forefront as more vulnerable objects. Karim Ali Mejri believes that under such conditions, the Gulf countries will update their security strategies, diversify routes, and strengthen military cooperation.
The processes taking place around the Strait of Hormuz show that the region is facing a new geopolitical environment. Although the US blockade policy is aimed at weakening Iran, this step also has an impact on the overall level of risk in the region. Iran’s response capabilities, the cautious stance of Arab countries, and the sensitivity of global markets make this process complex and multi-layered. The Qatari political commentator states that what is happening in Hormuz is a new phase determining global energy and geopolitical balance.