Baku: International rating agency Fitch Ratings has projected a steady decline in the price of Brent crude oil, anticipating it will drop to $70 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. This forecast comes amidst a challenging global credit environment, exacerbated by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and subsequent oil supply shock.
According to Azeri-Press News Agency, despite these disruptions, the baseline expectations for the global credit market remain largely unchanged. The report highlights a significant increase in sectors and assets assessed as “deteriorating” for 2026 compared to initial assessments made at the end of the previous year. Fitch Ratings expects that approximately one-third of the sectors it evaluates will experience weakening operating and business conditions. Similarly, asset performance in structured finance sectors is predicted to decline compared with 2025.
The agency has observed that rising macro-credit risks have prompted some rating downgrades and an increase in negative outlooks for certain sectors. Nonetheless, the majority of ratings maintain a “Stable” outlook. Fitch’s assessment also suggests that while the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz for about four months would have a significant impact, the anticipated decline in oil prices toward the year’s end is attributed to the temporary nature of the oil market shock.
Furthermore, the report underscores the positive influence of the investment boom in artificial intelligence on global trade, particularly benefiting Asia’s technology exporters. Increased capital investment in the United States and investor optimism related to artificial intelligence have supported economic activity, even as the labor market shows signs of easing.