Astana: The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan has opted to hold the key interest rate steady at 16.5 percent per annum with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point. This decision comes after the committee’s August meeting, as reported by Trend via the National Bank of Kazakhstan.
According to Trend News Agency, the decision is informed by the outcomes of the latest forecast round and the assessment of inflation risk balance. Although there was a slight reduction in monthly inflation to 0.7 percent in July, inflation rates remain higher than average annual figures. The annual inflation rate stood at 11.8 percent, driven significantly by the food sector, while inflation in the services sector showed signs of slowing for the first time this year.
The National Bank highlights ongoing tariff reforms, fiscal stimulus, high consumer demand, and active retail lending as factors contributing to sustained inflationary pressure. External factors, such as increasing global food prices, high inflation in partner countries, and stringent global monetary conditions, add to the pressure.
The inflation forecast has been revised, predicting a range of 11-12.5 percent for 2025, 9.5-11.5 percent for 2026, and 5.5-7.5 percent for 2027. Risks to these forecasts include rising domestic demand, growth in regulated prices, and inflation expectations, which climbed to 14.2 percent in July.
Amid strong investment activity and steady demand, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been adjusted upwards to 5.5-6.5 percent, while the forecast for 2026 remains between 4-5 percent. Starting in September, new conditions for minimum reserve requirements will be implemented to enhance the disinflationary impact of monetary policy. Additionally, measures to cool retail lending will be introduced through micro- and macroprudential tools.
With inflation expected to stay elevated in the upcoming months, the National Bank has indicated the possibility of tightening monetary conditions, including a potential increase in the key rate in future meetings. The next announcement regarding the key rate is scheduled for October 10, 2025, at 12:00 local time.