Baku: SOFAZ has revealed the primary reasons for the reduction in its revenues from oil and gas transit, attributing the decline to unforeseen geopolitical challenges. Taking into consideration that the actual transit revenues for 2025 fell significantly short of expectations and the ongoing suspension of transit routes due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, SOFAZ has aligned its 2026 revenue projections with the actual inflows observed this year.
According to Azeri-Press News Agency, this adjustment was highlighted in the Chamber of Accounts’ review of SOFAZ’s 2026 budget. The approach aims to ensure realistic forecasting, addressing the stark difference between the 2025 projected revenues of 25.4 million manats and the mere 0.004 million manats recorded by the end of the reporting period. The Chamber has consistently advised basing such forecasts on actual performance indicators from previous years.
In the 2026 budget, SOFAZ anticipates revenues from oil and gas transit through Azerbaijan to be USD 2.2 thousand or 3.7 thousand manats. This figure is 0.5 million manats less than the actual revenues in 2024 and significantly lower by 25.4 million manats than the approved forecast for 2025. The expected inflow remains consistent with the revised projections for 2025, reflecting a prudent approach amidst the current geopolitical climate.
The continued suspension of crude oil transport via the Western export pipeline and Black Sea route, stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led the Operating Company to predict zero revenues from these channels for the upcoming year. Consequently, it was deemed prudent to set the revenue forecast at the actual inflow level of the Oil Fund as of August 31, 2025.