Baku: Recent developments in Azerbaijan-Russia relations indicate a clear trend toward easing tensions between the two countries. The one-on-one meeting between President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the CIS summit in Dushanbe holds particular political significance in this regard. During the meeting, the issue of the Azerbaijani aircraft that was shot down by Russian air defense systems was discussed openly. Putin apologized for the incident and stated that those responsible would face legal consequences – a signal that Russia has effectively accepted Azerbaijan’s key demands.
According to Azeri-Press News Agency, the frank and mutually trusting negotiations between the two sides are creating a new diplomatic reality. Both Baku and Moscow understand the strategic importance of normalizing relations. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, shifting geopolitical conditions, Western sanctions, and the growing importance of transport and communication routes are pushing Moscow to build stable and predictable relations in the South Caucasus.
Sultan Zahidov, a senior advisor and political analyst at the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), told APA that the Dushanbe meeting between the Azerbaijani and Russian presidents is of great importance for the normalization of relations between the two countries.
‘During the meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin once again recalled his apology to President Ilham Aliyev over the aviation incident that occurred in December and noted that the Russian side would take the necessary measures to investigate the issue and hold those responsible legally accountable. He also said that compensation would be paid to the victims, which means that Azerbaijan’s demands have been fully met,’ Mr. Zahidov noted.
It should be recalled that the main source of tension between the two countries over the past year was the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft over Grozny by Russian air defense systems in December. In response, Azerbaijan submitted its demands in accordance with international law and principles. Putin’s assurance that these demands will be met is crucial for resolving the issue and setting a new dynamic in bilateral relations.
‘I believe that after this meeting, political contacts between the two countries will intensify further, giving a significant impetus to easing Azerbaijan-Russia tensions. This meeting and the new dynamic in relations should be seen as a ‘win’ for both sides,’ Zahidov added.
Certain forces in the West and pro-Armenian groups within Russia sought to deepen tensions between the two countries, attempting to open a ‘second front’ through information and political provocations. However, a calm and emotion-free diplomatic approach thwarted these plans. The Dushanbe meeting demonstrated that neither Baku nor Moscow intends to follow such scenarios. On the contrary, both sides are interested in restoring relations on a rational basis and moving into a new phase.
In this context, Azerbaijan’s role in the North-South Transport Corridor, as well as its growing economic and logistical significance, has become an important strategic factor for Russia.
Mr. Zahidov notes that the Dushanbe meeting and Putin’s stance effectively destroyed the plans of Simonyan and others, demonstrating Moscow’s decision to restore relations with Baku in light of the geopolitical environment: ‘It should be noted that some circles in Russia tried to exploit the existing tensions to the maximum. Figures such as Margarita Simonyan, Vladimir Solovyov, and Konstantin Zatulin can be mentioned as examples. The Dushanbe meeting effectively nullified their plans. As neighboring countries, Azerbaijan and Russia have a vested interest in maintaining normal relations. Trade and economic ties between the two countries are growing year by year. Adding humanitarian, cultural, and other forms of cooperation makes it clear that both sides need each other. Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia is keen to keep the North-South Transport Corridor operational and needs Azerbaijan’s role in this regard. Deteriorating relations with Azerbaijan would, in fact, run counter to Russia’s o
wn national interests. The Dushanbe meeting and Putin’s position have laid the foundation for a new stage in relations. One of the key reasons for this is the geopolitical context. In the face of intensified sanctions and isolation from various platforms due to the war in Ukraine, Russia has developed a strategic need to expand its transport, communication, and economic lines. Western efforts to increase their sphere of influence around Russia are putting pressure on Moscow, and in this context, Russia has clearly recognized Azerbaijan’s strategic importance and decided to restore ties with Baku. In fact, Russia was the main party responsible for the tensions. Now, Moscow is playing a constructive role together with Azerbaijan to overcome them. Despite everything, I believe the next stage of Azerbaijan-Russia relations will be remembered for its positive developments. Mutual steps taken by both sides will play a crucial role here. Given that the geopolitical context currently works against Russia, it seems un
likely that Moscow will take steps that would once again escalate tensions.”
The normalization of Azerbaijan-Russia relations is not only crucial for the two countries but also for the overall stability and security architecture of the region. The display of mutual political will and the activation of diplomatic channels show that both sides are avoiding confrontation scenarios in favor of a cooperation model based on mutual benefit. At this stage, the focus is not only on political gestures but also on practical measures.
Halting the unjustified persecution of Azerbaijanis living in Russia, expanding mutual economic ties, and strengthening coordination in regional projects should be among the main directions of this new phase.
AIR Center’s senior advisors stressed that halting such persecution and the steps to be taken in this regard will directly influence the future of Azerbaijan-Russia relations: ‘The steps taken in the coming period will be one of the key factors shaping the future trajectory of Azerbaijan-Russia relations. In particular, addressing the recent unjustified persecution and discriminatory practices against our compatriots living in Russia and Azerbaijani citizens holding Russian citizenship is a top priority. Real and systematic actions in this area can significantly contribute to preserving the existing strategic partnership environment and restoring mutual trust in public opinion. Azerbaijan expects that, within the framework of mutual political understanding, the Russian side will take a sensitive approach and implement concrete measures to protect the rights of our citizens.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s public correction of Nikol Pashinyan’s trade figures can be interpreted as an exposure of Yerevan’s attempts to conceal its ‘re-export’ policy. As the Pashinyan government deepens its rapprochement with the West, questions about transparency in its formal economic relations with Russia are increasing. Highlighting discrepancies in official trade statistics and Putin’s public remarks indicate that the Kremlin is no longer willing to tolerate Yerevan’s ‘double game’ in this area.
‘Another noteworthy event during the CIS summit was the dialogue between Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Putin asked Pashinyan about Armenia-Russia trade turnover. Pashinyan first mentioned USD 4 billion, then USD 9 billion. Putin replied that these figures did not reflect reality, pointing to Armenia’s re-export of goods imported from the European Union to Russia despite sanctions. Different sources confirm that Armenia has been exporting EU-origin goods to Russia, causing trade turnover between the two countries to multiply. Russia is clearly displeased with Pashinyan’s pro-Western policies and his push for EU integration,’ Zahidov concluded.