Baku: Global daily oil demand increased by 0.65 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 0.7%, last year compared to the 2024 level, APA reports citing the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Energy Review 2026.
According to Azeri-Press News Agency, the increase recorded last year indicates a continued slowdown in global oil demand growth compared to the already modest rise of 0.75 mb/d in 2024. The growth in 2025 remained significantly below the 2010-2019 annual average of 1.4 mb/d, reflecting a structural slowdown in oil markets. It should be noted that almost all of the growth in oil consumption in 2025 (600 kb/d) was driven by emerging markets and developing economies.
The slowdown in growth recorded last year was mainly due to weaker demand for petrochemical feedstocks. In particular, demand for naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and ethane-key feedstocks for plastics production-declined notably in the second quarter of 2025. This was caused by trade tensions negatively affecting international trade and disruptions to major export flows from the United States to chemical plants in China.
Meanwhile, the growth in demand for transportation fuels in 2025, as the sector with the largest share in total petroleum product demand, remained broadly stable. Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, economic activity in key markets remained relatively resilient, supporting mobility demand. However, overall oil consumption growth in this sector was weakened by the increasing electrification of road transport and the rising use of biofuels.
An additional factor supporting oil demand was the steady decline in prices throughout 2025; this decrease averaged 15% compared to 2024 and was driven by a healthy increase in supply. Thus, supply rose by 3 mb/d year-on-year last year, which was related to the recovery of production in OPEC+ countries after previous cuts and the continued growth of production outside OPEC+, particularly in the Americas.
In conclusion, not with absolute certainty, but with a higher probability, it can be forecast that global oil demand growth rates this year will remain at approximately the same level as last year, or may even be slightly lower. This will undoubtedly be influenced by the war in the Middle East. The conflict has negatively affected the operation of several refining facilities, created tensions in logistics flows around the Strait of Hormuz due to its blockage, and led to disruptions in the traditional global supply chains of ‘black gold.’ As a result, amid these developments, uncertainty in the global oil market has increased and tendencies toward a slowdown in demand growth dynamics have strengthened.