Baku: Voters in the eastern German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are set to elect a new state parliament on Sunday, with Premier Manuela Schwesig’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) locked in a close race, Anadolu Agency reports. Polling stations are scheduled to open at 8 am and will close at 6 pm local time (0600GMT-1600GMT). Approximately 1.3 million residents are eligible to vote, including 16- and 17-year-olds participating in a state election for the first time. Initial projections based on exit polls are expected immediately after polls close.
According to Azerbaijan State News Agency, the election takes place two weeks after the AfD achieved its strongest performance in a German state by winning 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt. Observers are keen to see if this trend continues in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The latest poll by public broadcaster ZDF indicates the SPD is leading with 37%, closely followed by the AfD at 36%, reflecting a tight one-point margin after months of AfD dominance.
The socialist Left Party is polling at 9%, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative CDU is at 6%, just surpassing the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. The environmentalist Greens are at 5%, and the left-populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is at 4%. Notably, 21% of respondents remain undecided.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a sparsely populated state along the Baltic Sea with its capital in Schwerin, has been governed by the SPD since 1998 with various coalition partners. Manuela Schwesig has served as premier since 2017, and in the 2021 election, the SPD secured 39.6% of the vote, forming a coalition with the Left Party. Schwesig’s popularity extends beyond the party’s base, with a recent ZDF survey revealing that 61% would support her in a direct vote for premier, compared to 30% for her AfD opponent.
Schwesig has focused her campaign on preventing an AfD majority, emphasizing the choice between a strong SPD-led democratic coalition or an AfD victory that could empower ‘extremists.’ The AfD’s candidate, Leif-Erik Holm, a federal parliament member since 2017, has centered his campaign on social and economic issues, criticizing the SPD-led government for its ‘disastrous record.’
Nationally, Sunday’s election outcome will serve as an indicator of the public’s sentiment and whether Chancellor Merz can retain his position amid declining support. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the CDU faces the risk of falling below the 5% threshold, which would exclude it from the state parliament for the first time since reunification. Even if it surpasses this threshold, a result below 9% would signify the CDU’s weakest postwar performance in a state election.
Chancellor Merz has canceled a planned trip to New York for the UN General Debate to stay in the capital during and after the election. He, along with senior CDU leaders, plans to meet at party headquarters late Sunday, with further discussions scheduled for Monday. CDU lawmakers and their Bavarian sister party, the CSU, are set to convene two days later to analyze the election results.