Baku: Fitch Solutions (FS), part of the Fitch Group, has once again set its economic growth forecast for Azerbaijan at 2.6% for this year and 2.4% for 2026, APA-Economics reports, citing FS. The report highlights that despite governmental efforts to diversify the economy, the oil-gas sector continues to significantly influence the country’s growth rate.
According to Azeri-Press News Agency, Azerbaijan’s economic reliance on the oil-gas sector, which constitutes 38.5% of its GDP, means that falling global oil prices could diminish revenues and weaken overall growth. The report further indicates that oil prices are expected to drop by an average of 15% in 2025. However, for 2026-2027, the risks in oil price forecasts lean towards an increase, which may result from potential sanctions on Russia affecting global oil supply.
FS suggests that the non-oil sector will maintain support for growth, driven by recent trade agreements and a recovery in capital investments. The prioritization of social spending is expected to boost the role of private consumption in economic growth.
The document forecasts that Azerbaijan’s real GDP growth rate will increase to 2.9% in 2027-2028, reach 3.6% in 2029, before declining to 2.8% in 2030. Nominal GDP is projected to hit USD 102.4 billion this year, USD 110.5 billion the next year, USD 115.6 billion in 2027, and USD 121 billion in 2028. By 2029, nominal GDP will surpass USD 130 billion and is anticipated to reach USD 141.5 billion in 2030.
GDP per capita is expected to be USD 9,740 this year, increasing to USD 10,468 next year, and USD 10,912 in 2027. This figure is projected to exceed USD 11,000 in 2028, USD 12,000 in 2029, and USD 13,000 in 2030.