Baku: The processes taking place in the South Caucasus today show that a new geopolitical order is being formed in the region. The realities that emerged after the 44-day Patriotic War have already completely changed the political agenda of the region, and Azerbaijan is the main initiator of this process. Armenia’s current political behavior shows that it is still not capable of pursuing a fully independent state policy.
According to Azeri-Press News Agency, political analyst Zaur Mammadov, associate professor at the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, stated that the Armenian people have historically lacked traditions of independent statehood. He highlighted that in 1918, Armenia managed to establish their state at the expense of Azerbaijani territories, and the lack of a state before 1918 is still evident today. Despite having patrons and defenders, Armenia has not fully realized its sovereignty and independence. Mammadov added that Armenia’s inability to make independent decisions regarding its foreign and domestic policy negatively affects regional stability.
Mammadov noted that a new phase has begun between Azerbaijan and Armenia, where all parties must accept the new reality without taking steps that could harm the process. He remarked that Armenia is becoming an instrument of France’s neocolonial policy in the Caucasus. Against the backdrop of activities by the Baku Initiative Group and positions against neocolonialism on international platforms, Emmanuel Macron is attempting to turn Armenia into France’s political tool. However, this policy has also impacted France, which has lost influence in many regions and is remembered for unsuccessful policies.
The political analyst also highlighted the failure of the initiative put forward by the French President during the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, where the desire to cross the Trkiye-Armenia border did not materialize. The firm political will of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan prevented this plan. Mammadov emphasized that the presidents of Azerbaijan and Trkiye are the main political forces shaping the regional agenda, contributing to stability.
Mammadov believes that the decisions Armenian society will make in the coming period will be decisive for the country’s future. He expressed hope that Armenian society will draw the right conclusions from ongoing processes. The upcoming elections are crucial for Armenia’s future, as the forces that manipulated the Karabakh issue are now putting Armenia’s future at risk. Armenian society must understand that remaining under foreign influence offers no prospects for the country. Sustainable peace and development can only come through accepting the new realities and determining the country’s future strategic direction.