Moscow: Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed directives to amend military-technical cooperation agreements with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, potentially opening the door to deeper defense ties with the two Central Asian states. As Western sanctions and Ukrainian long-range strikes strain Russia’s military industry, the move may signal that Moscow is seeking to relocate parts of its military-industrial base to reduce its vulnerability to attack.
According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, after Putin signed the directives last month, the Kremlin has not disclosed what specific changes it is seeking to the agreements, which cover the supply and upkeep of weapons and military equipment, among other forms of defense cooperation. Since the agreement with Kazakhstan entered into force in 2015, Astana has acquired a range of Russian military equipment. Similarly, the 2016 agreement with Uzbekistan expanded military cooperation, with Tashkent acquiring various Russian military assets.
Yermek Seitbattal, a Ka
zakh military analyst, stated that the timing reflects growing international pressure on Moscow. “I believe the Kremlin is in a difficult position,” Seitbattal noted, citing impending EU sanctions and increased Western support for Ukraine. He highlighted that Ukraine’s enhanced long-range drone campaign is disrupting Russia’s domestic military supply chain, pushing Moscow to establish facilities farther from the conflict zones.
Derek Bisaccio, a military analyst at Forecast International, explained to Azattyq Asia that geographic distance from Russia would be a strategic advantage. Hosting operations in another country could complicate Ukrainian operations. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan currently host key facilities for maintaining and modernizing Russian military equipment, including Kazakh’s Semey Engineering and the Aviation Repair Plant in Almaty, and Uzbekistan’s Chirchik Aircraft Repair Plant.
Historically, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia sought to preserve its military influence over C
entral Asian states through bilateral agreements and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, Uzbekistan has maintained more strategic autonomy, exiting the alliance in 2012 to manage its military relationship with Moscow strictly through bilateral agreements.
Defense analyst Seitbattal suggested that Moscow might be seeking to move beyond its traditional role as a supplier, potentially desiring more reciprocal military ties. However, it’s uncertain whether Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan wish to deepen these ties. Kazakhstan’s Defense Ministry declined to discuss the amendments’ substance, while Uzbekistan’s Defense Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
Pavel Baev, a political scientist at the Peace Research Institute Oslo, questioned whether Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have a reason to deepen ties with Moscow, given Ukraine’s growing capabilities to strike deep inside Russia. Baev noted that cooperation may seem less appealing as Russian air defenses falter, and suggested that Kaza
khstan and Uzbekistan could delay negotiations or refuse to amend the agreements altogether. He speculated that Moscow’s demands might expose these nations to potential Western sanctions, suggesting a hidden agenda in Putin’s strategy.