Kazhydromet switches to a new forecast system
Minister of Energy Kanat Bozumbayev reported on the state of preparedness for the 2018 flood period in the course of the Government meeting chaired by the Prime Minister Bakytzhan Sagintayev.
In his report, Kanat Bozumbayev noted that in order to swiftly provide hydrometeorological information, RSE Kazhydromet is conducting observations using the state monitoring network, which includes 310 hydrological posts, 339 meteorological stations and posts, and two snow avalanche stations.
In the event of sudden changes in water bodies, all hydrological stations switch to enhanced monitoring, conducted every four hours.
In addition, there is a system for communicating warnings to the Committee for Emergency Situations of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Committee on Water Resources of the Ministry of Agriculture and to local executive bodies in the event of natural hydrological developments.
In order to determine moisture reserves in ravines which have accumulated large snow reserves not included in calculations, the specialists of Kazhydromet branches and regional departments of emergencies conduct on-site investigations on all basins of plain rivers using snow and swamp-going vehicles.
The main hydrological forecasts of Kazhydromet during flood period will be provided to concerned state bodies and regional Akimats on a weekly basis starting from March 1, 2018, with a seven-day lead time and updates every three days, � Kanat Bozumbayev said.
The Energy Minister also noted that work is under way within the framework of the Roadmap for the Prevention and Elimination of Flood Hazards for 2017-2020.
Reports on the water reserves in the river basins accumulated in 2017 and up to February 1, 2018, were sent in time to concerned state bodies.
In general, the analysis of accumulated water reserves, the depth of soil freezing and the fullness of reservoirs show with 70-90% certainty that in the case of amicable spring there may be risks of flooding of settlements, infrastructure facilities in Karaganda, North Kazakhstan and Akmola regions, � Kanat Bozumbayev said.
Following the Energy Minister’s report, Prime Minister Bakytzhan Sagintayev asked Kanat Bozumbayev about the issue of ensuring the timeliness of the Kazhydromet forecasts, which may be the reason for the local authorities’ failure to take a number of necessary measures to prevent flood hazards.
The forecast system has changed. If earlier we made a hydrological forecast for three months ahead, beginning from March 1 we will switch to a new system: a seven-day advance forecast. Its probability is more than 90%. Every three days there will be an update. That is, all state bodies are more likely to be informed about the ongoing climate and other changes, � Kanat Bozumbayev said.
Also, according to him, new approaches are being used in the compilation of forecasts: mathematical models, studies using radars.
I can not speak for our services, but it is certain that Kazhydromet will give forecasts with a reliability of over 90%, � Kanat Bozumbayev said.
Source: Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan