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Thursday, November 15th, 2018

Government approves the forecast of social and economic development and budget parameters for 2018

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The draft of the updated forecast of social and economic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2018-2022 and parameters of the National budget for 2018 was approved during today’s Government meeting chaired by Prime Minister Bakytzhan Sagintayev.

Reports on the main macro indicators and budget parameters for 2018 were delivered by Minister of National Economy Timur Suleimenov and Minister of Finance Bakhyt Sultanov.

Minister of National Economy Timur Suleimenov reported that nominal GDP in 2017 is estimated at 52.4 trillion tenge. It increased by 558 billion tenge. Real growth was 4%. Economic growth in January-February of this year also amounted to 4%.

The forecast for oil prices in 2018 was increased from 45 USD to 55 USD per barrel. The price index for metals increased 0.4%.

Taking into account the updated base of 2017, the nominal GDP in 2018 is projected at 57.2 trillion tenge. This is higher than the indicator approved in August by 1.3 trillion tenge. Real GDP is expected to be at the level of 3.8% (note – earlier it was predicted at 3.1%). GDP per capita will increase to 9200 USD, � Minister of National Economy Timur Suleimenov said.

In addition, it is noted that industry growth has been revised upwards to 3.3%. This is due to the expected higher growth in the manufacturing industry – 5.1%.

At the same time, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Energy, the volume of oil production in 2018 will be 87 million tonnes. Given the increase in world oil prices and economic growth, exports will rise to 54 billion USD, imports to 34 billion USD.

Inflation will remain in the previously approved corridor of 5-7%.

The forecast of the parameters of the National budget for 2018 was updated based on the adjusted macro forecast.

Incomes (excluding transfers) in 2018 are estimated at 5.7 trillion tenge. This is above the approved plan by 190 billion tenge. Incomes to the National Fund are projected to grow by 546 billion tenge and will amount to 2.6 trillion tenge, � Timur Suleimenov said.

The currency assets of the National Fund at the end of the year are projected at 58.3 billion USD, which is 34.7% of GDP.

Minister of Finance Bakhyt Sultanov, in turn, presented the bill on the update of the National budget for the current year, aimed at implementing the instructions of the Head of State, voiced in the Addresses to the People of Kazakhstan and 5 social initiatives of the President.

The basis for updating the approved indicators of the National budget for 2018 was the adjusted forecast of the country’s macroeconomic indicators.

Thus, the revenues of the National budget as a whole were increased by 181.4 billion tenge and amounted to 8759.7 billion tenge, mainly from the export customs duty on oil as a result of an increase in the price of oil and in production.

Expenditures of the National budget in 2018 will amount to 9643 billion tenge, with an increase of 417 billion tenge. Of this amount, 292.5 billion tenge will be used to implement the Addresses of the Head of State Third Modernization of Kazakhstan: Global Competitiveness and New Development Opportunities in the Conditions of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

61.8 billion tenge will be allocated to raise the salaries of teachers from 30 to 50%, 5 billion tenge is proposed to be allocated to increase the number of educational grants by 20 000. For new benefits for persons caring for disabled people � 2.7 billion tenge. To provide drinking water to rural settlements, an additional 30.9 billion tenge will also be allocated, � Bakhyt Sultanov said.

In addition, the draft budget takes into account the costs of the country’s earlier commitments and instructions of the President, for a total of 99.4 billion tenge. Bakhyt Sultanov said that within the framework of these funds, measures and projects will be financed for the further development of the cities of Astana (25 billion tenge) and Almaty (10.7 billion tenge), provision of servicemen with housing (18.7 billion tenge).

Source: Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan

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